The headline number in almost every AI-infrastructure story is queue size — how many gigawatts have been requested. LOADSTAR’s second Reality Report asks the harder question: how much of that is actually committed. Nationally, interconnection queues list 876.5 GW of requested capacity. Independently corroborated, firm capacity comes to 17.4 GW — the queue is roughly 50 times the confirmed volume. PJM alone lists 148.6 GW of large-load requests, of which only about 11.6% carry firm commitment.
LOADSTAR classifies each queue entry as committed or uncommitted based on independent signals — permits, energy contracts, hiring, federal registration — which is a different, and stricter, standard than a project’s official interconnection status with its grid operator. The report is explicit that this distinction matters: “uncommitted” is a risk signal, not a confirmed phantom. A project can be genuinely early-stage and still uncommitted by this measure; the score describes what’s corroborated today, not a verdict on what a project will become.
Read against the first Reality Report, the pattern holds: only about 8.6% of measured regions meet the Real threshold (≥68) — three of 35. The center of gravity nationally isn’t boom or bubble. It’s mixed, and the queue-to-receipts ratio is the clearest single number showing why.
Fifty of the report’s region-level predictions are sealed in a dated ledger — hash-anchored before outcomes resolve, so the record can’t be quietly edited after the fact. The live scoreboard behind these numbers is public. As the report puts it: “We don’t sell certainty. We publish the reading and the method, dated, and let the record judge us.”